The case against natural gas fracking got even stronger today as the US Energy Information Agency (IEA) forecasts there much less natural gas shale reserves than it previously thought.
In last year’s report, IEA projected natural gas fracking could meet US energy demand for 17 years – now, it’s down to 6 years.
IEA cut its estimate of the amount of natural gas in the Marcellus shale formation by 66%. And it also cut the potential across the US from fracking 42%.
According to IEA’s Annual Energy Outlook, there’s 141 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Marcellus Shale, which runs through NY and Pennsylvania, down from the 410 trillion cubic feet it previously thought.
Across the US, there’s 482 trillion cubic feet to be recovered, down from 827 trillion in last year’s outlook.
"Drilling in the Marcellus accelerated rapidly in 2010 and 2011, so that there is far more information available today than a year ago," says IEA. The daily rate of Marcellus production doubled during 2011.
Shale Gas Worse for Climate Change
While many tout natural gas as a cleaner, bridge fuel that can provide energy as the world transitions away from fossil fuels, a recent Cornell University study counters that.
When extracted from shale, natural gas is a huge contributor of greenhouse gases (GHG) because it emits methane as well as carbon dioxide.
In fact, it produces more GHG than all other fossil fuels including coal because methane is much more potent than carbon.
Their analysis shows the natural gas industry currently accounts for 17% of U.S. GHG, and predicts it will grow to 23% as shale gas replaces conventional natural gas.
The study, "Venting and Leaking of Methane from Shale Gas Development," will be published in the journal Climatic
Change. It follows up on a previous paper by the same authors, which provided the first comprehensive analysis of GHG emissions from shale gas obtained by hydraulic fracturing.
"Can shale gas methane emissions be reduced? Clearly yes, and proposed EPA regulations to require capture of gas at the time of well completions are an important step. Regulations are necessary to accomplish emission reductions, as economic considerations alone have not driven such reductions.
And it may be extremely expensive to reduce leakage associated with aging infrastructure, particularly distribution pipelines in cities but also long-distance transmission pipelines, which are on average more than 50 years old in the U.S.
Should society invest massive capital in such improvements for a bridge fuel that is to be used for only 20 to 30 years, or would the capital be better spent on constructing a smart electric grid and other technologies that move towards a truly green energy future?," asks Anthony Ingraffea, Dwight C. Baum professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell
University, one of the report’s authors.
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Another recent study on natural gas emissions and the need to capture the methane.
Texas will limit fracking, NY Doctors warn of health risks.
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook:
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