The first peer-reviewed study has been published that shows how a large economy can reduce greenhouse gas emissons 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
The countries currently haggling over how much emissions they’ll reduce in Durban, South Africa, could learn from this.
The study, published in Science, shows how California can meet those targets which the state set in 2006. The law also calls for reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
Energy and Environmental Economics of San Francisco and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab conducted the research.
California can meet the goal by transforming its transportation fully to electric cars, vastly increasing the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildngs, and making immediate, sustained investments in renewable energy.
The key to achieving the target is that Californians must be driving only electric cars by 2050, which are charged from renewable energy sources. Homes and businesses will have to run on clean energy too.
That means a whole lot of new electricity sources must be added to the grid to replace oil, natural gas and coal – the equivalent of 1½ to two nuclear plants must be added every year starting now.
The good news is that no technological or behavioral breakthroughs are required.
Much of the research is based on the price of oil – if it rises as expected, the cost of meeting the target would be about 1.3% of GDP by 2050.
The costs drop significantly if oil prices are at the high end of projections, and if green job creation and health benefits from cleaner air and water are included.
It’s a daunting task, but it is achievable.
California currently prohibits construction of new nuclear plants until there’s a way to safely store the waste permanently, so that’s not an option.
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