Global solar PV panel inventory levels have reached their highest levels ever in Q2 2011 – over 10 gigawatts (GW).
IMS Research estimates that almost 8 GW of modules have been shipped by manufacturers, but have yet to be installed and connected to the grid.
Combined with cuts in feed-in law incentives in key European countries, the high inventory levels are contributing to rapidly declining prices.
In Italy, installations have slowed since the government reduced subsidies. Other European markets have experienced a slower than expected start to the year.
This has led to a sharp increase in inventory levels throughout the supply chain. Manufacturers, distributors, integrators and installers all say inventory levels have climbed during the first half of 2011.
"Throughout 2010, when all products were moving quickly through the supply chain, channel inventory typically stood at 4-5 GW; which is roughly equivalent to one quarter’s production. Generally speaking, a module will take around three months to be shipped, transported and make its way through distribution channels before being installed, so this figure appears reasonable," commented PV Research Analyst for IMS, Sam Wilkinson. "Many in the industry consider today’s inventory levels to be shocking. However, it represents an increase of only around 3-4 GW over ‘normal’ levels."
As well as the large channel inventory of modules, supplier inventory has also grown quickly in early 2011; most suppliers report that year-to-date production far exceeds shipments. The resulting increase in modules held in stock by suppliers has taken the total PV module inventory over the 10 GW mark.
IMS Research predicts that further declines in average PV module prices will lead to a strong recovery in the PV market, in particular led by growth in Germany and the USA. They also expect the high levels of inventory to begin correcting in Q3 2011.
The effects are already being seen in the US, where solar development is heating up in Q2.
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