The prospects for concentrating solar (CSP) are bright in the near term, but hazy in the longer term, according to GTM Research.
CSP installations are forecast to reach 472 MW in 2011 and over 1200 MW n 2012, growing from a $3 billion market in 2011 to over $10 billion by 2013.
The situation is less rosy after 2013 because of the long-term threat posed by solar PV, which continues to reduce installed costs faster than CSP.
"Paradoxically, CSP is simultaneously experiencing unprecedented growth and facing extinction," says Brett Prior, the report’s author and a senior analyst at GTM Research.
"Certain projects announced in 2007 to 2009, with signed utility contracts in-hand, are finally securing financing, breaking ground and will eventually become the largest solar plants in the world. However, the future of the industry is at risk due to the dramatic decline in PV panel costs, which is compelling utilities to select lower-cost PV over CSP for future solar plants, thereby pushing the CSP industry toward potential obsolescence."
CSP plants coming online in the next few years will help manufacturers bring down project costs, which GTM expects to decline 3-7% a year from 2010-2020. PV costs, however, will substantially decline. Solar PV will maintain a cost advantage (on both a cost-per-watt and cost-per-kWh basis) through 2020.
"The trend of CSP projects being converted into PV projects is troubling," says Prior. "To turn the tide, CSP developers need either to improve their cost per kWh against PV or convince utilities to pay extra for storage and dispatchable generation. Barring one of these outcomes, the long-term future for CSP is bleak."
The report, Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets, examines the state of the industry with an emphasis on project economics (cost per watt and cost per kWh), top markets (U.S., Spain, and China), and a detailed CSP pipeline with over 170 projects globally. The report forecasts CSP and PV costs as well as expected total installations through 2020.
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