After seven decades of mostly uninterrupted growth, U.S. gasoline demand is at the start of a long-term decline.
By 2030, Americans will burn at least 20% less gasoline than today even as 27 million more cars clog the roads.
Government and industry officials – including the CEO of Exxon Mobil – say U.S. gasoline demand has peaked for good. It has declined four years in a row and will not reach the 2006 level again, even when the economy fully recovers.
The country’s thirst for gasoline is shrinking as cars and trucks become more fuel-efficient, the government mandates the use of more ethanol and people drive less.
Thus far in 2010, Americans have burned through 344 million gallons of gasoline a day – that’s 8% less than at the 2006 peak, according to government data.
The decline is expected to accelerate because of new mileage standards instituted by the Obama administration. Starting with the 2012 model year, carmakers must average 30.1 mpg across their fleets. That rises to 35.5 mpg in 2016.
By 2022, biofuels will account for 25% of gas sold at the pump, as the US fuel mix must include 36 billion gallons of ethanol and other biofuels, up from 14 billion gallons in 2011.
Gasoline prices are forecast to stay high as developing economies in Asia and the Middle East use more oil.
Demographic factors are important too – baby boomers will drive less as they age.
The SUV fad has been wearing off since 2004, saving Americans $15 billion in gas this year, according to the National Resources Defense Council.
The US will still top the world in gas consumption for decades to come. China comes in second, but even with its explosive growth, it uses half of the U.S.
Read the full AP article:
Loading...