Nine countries will reach solar market sizes over 250 megawatts (MW) in 2010,
up from six in 2009, according to new analyses.
Rapid growth in Italy, Czech Republic and France will generate some 3 gigawatts (GW) of European demand in 2010, Solarbuzz said in releasing its three Downstream Regional Reports.
Germany will once again be the outstanding market performer of 2010, but its vulnerability to two successive incentive tariff reductions in the next seven months will place growing emphasis on seeking out growth opportunities in other country markets over the next year. German policy makers are wrestling with how to bring the market under some level of effective control.
As other photovoltaic markets in Europe grow strongly this year–such as Italy, the Czech Republic, Belgium and France–they do so against a backdrop of fiscal crises and economic woes around Europe. Meanwhile, Spain is still reverberating from catastrophic PV policy adjustments over the last two years that continue to deteriorate.
The race is now on between Italy, Czech Republic, United States, and potentially even Japan, to become just the third country member of the elite club to install 1 GW of PV in a single year.
"Set against the weak European economic environment, the risk of future moderation of PV incentive policy around Europe will necessitate flexibility in corporate sales and marketing initiatives to handle changes in market mix," said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz.
Leading utilities and renewable players Electricité de France (EDF)(EDF.PA), Enel (ENEL.MI), Statkraft, Acciona (ANA.MC), and E.ON (EOAN.DE) are at the forefront of large-scale PV deployment, particularly in France and Italy. SunPower (NYSE: SPWRA) and MEMC (NYSE: WFR) subsidiary SunEdison also have announced plans to significantly ramp up its solar development in Europe
Recent key policy enhancements in Japan and the United States have set the ground work for significant growth in these already substantial markets.
The complex policy environment in the United States is driven by Federal, State rebates, feed-in tariffs, tax incentives, net metering, grants and other short term funding through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. These are combining to deliver a potential doubling in that market in 2010. Utility driven projects in California and other states with Renewable Portfolio Standards are creating the largest market segment.
Solar companies are operating more vertical integration models in the strategic markets, either through equity interest or via partnering. The ability to access sources of project financing remains key to success in most of the major markets. On the supply side, Japanese module manufacturers are increasingly focused on their domestic market, able to access the utility net feed-in tariff and new residential incentives. Distribution channels in that country are becoming more diversified, with new entrants like Yamada Denki (YMDAF.PK) and Toshiba (6502.T) starting to make their presence felt.
PV project order books in China and India show that those two countries are well positioned to make a material contribution to global market growth over the next 2 years. Nearly 100 planned installations in China add up to an unrisked order book of 18.6 GW, while the Indian pipeline contributes a further 4.8 GW.
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