The percentage of US electricity produced by non-hydro renewable energy
sources will increase from 4% in 2009 to 12.3% in 2030, according to the "Annual Energy Outlook 2010" published Tuesday by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Last year the EIA projected of 11% renewables in 2030.
This projected growth in renewable energy is due primarily to state
renewable electricity standards (RES) and federal tax credits included in last
year’s stimulus bill that are set to expire as early as next year for
some renewable energy technologies.
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) estimates that this "business as
usual" renewable development will eclipse the amount of clean energy
developed in renewable electricity standards currently proposed in the US House’s Climate Change bill. The climate change bill released in the US Senate Wednesday did not include a RES.
In a separate release regarding The American Power Act released in the Senate, UCS said the bill is a "critical step toward curbing the heat-trapping emissions that drive climate change, reducing U.S. dependence on oil, and creating new clean energy jobs." However, the organization said it needs numerous improvements including a strong renewable electricity standard.
"Any serious national effort to increase renewable energy
capacity and create jobs means targets must be strengthened
considerably," UCS said in its analysis of the EIA’s annual report.
Steve Clemmer, research director for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), said "A key takeaway in the ‘Energy Outlook’ is that the renewable energy industry is expanding steadily in all parts of the country."
The "Energy Outlook" projects that renewable energy technologies
(excluding hydropower) will represent 41% of the new electric capacity
built between 2008 and 2035. EIA projects that new renewable energy
facilities will provide three times the capacity created by new coal
plants and nearly 11 times the capacity developed with new nuclear
plants.
EIA projects that renewable energy will increase in all
regions of the country, including the Southeast. That region’s renewable
energy capacity is expected to increase from 4,500 megawatts (MW) in
2009 to 17,300 MW by 2030. This growth is impressive compared with
today’s levels, but it still falls well short of the region’s true
homegrown, clean energy potential.
A number of recent
studies—including those by the Department of Energy—show that a strong
national renewable electricity standard is feasible and affordable. A
2009 UCS analysis found that the nation could meet a 25% by 2025
renewable electricity standard, generate 300,000 new sustainable
jobs, and save consumers $64.3 billion on their electric and
natural gas bills.
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS
The "EIA Outlook" anticipates a 35% increase in gasoline prices over
the next decade, from $2.49 in 2010 to $3.34 in 2020 (in 2008 dollars).
Using the EIA’s fuel price projections, UCS estimates drivers will save
$46 billion in 2020—even after factoring in the cost of vehicle
technology improvements.
New federal fuel-economy standards do not
apply to big rigs and other heavy trucks, so the increases in fuel
costs for these vehicles will not be offset. A UCS analysis found that
the average medium- and heavy-duty truck could become at least 60% more
fuel efficient by 2030 by instituting a range of efficiency
improvements, including low-rolling resistance tires, advanced engines,
and more aerodynamic tractor and trailer designs. Using the EIA’s fuel
price data, that level of fuel efficiency would save truckers $34
billion in 2030.
UCS’s Clean Vehicle Program, senior federal policy analyst Brendan
Bell said, "Fuel-economy standards are like an insurance policy against
high gas prices for consumers. The new automobile standards show that we
can save consumers billions of dollars at the pump—now we need to do
the same for big rig trucks."
The "Energy Outlook" starkly illustrates the
failure of the cellulosic biofuels industry to date. This year, the EIA
projects cellulosic ethanol volumes will be 97% lower than the 100
million gallon mandate in the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). Long-term
commercialization of cellulosic biofuels lags behind RFS targets by a
decade.
The full Energy Outlook report is available at the link below.
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