Annual global expenditure on renewable energy projects will
increase from US$90 billion in 2009 to $150 billion in 2020, but that isn’t enough to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to new figures by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
A new long-term projection model from the analyst group shows that–following current policy targets–funding will further increase to $200 billion by 2030. But these figures must increase
significantly in order to avert the worst effects of climate change and achieve an
average of 2tCO2 (tons of carbon dioxide) per head by 2050.
Expenditure on renewable energy assets needs to increase to $230
billion by 2020 and $500 billion by 2030 to meet this goal. This will mean that
renewable energy expands to cover just over 40% of installed power generation
capacity and contributes 45% to the additional 19Gt (gross tons) of emission reductions
needed by 2030.
Achievement of these more
ambitious goals to reduce global emissions can be obtained by progressively increasing
a cost of carbon around the world to $100 per ton by 2030.
The new findings apply the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Global Energy and Emissions
Model GE2M, which is a long-term projection model covering the entire world energy
system.
The new model forecasts investments levels, technologies and policy
options required to meet energy and emissions goals. Based on current trends, it projects that by 2020 renewable energy will
make up 22% of the world’s installed power generation base, up from 13% today, and
that it will constitute 31% of power by 2030.
The model predicts that the increase in annual global
expenditure on renewable energy capacity will come largely from onshore wind.
According to the model, significant expansion will also occur in solar PV and offshore
wind.
The group foresees that biomass technologies will continue to play an important
role, particularly in the transport sector while hydropower will experience limited
growth.
Important emission reductions will also come from forestry and agriculture and
improved industrial energy efficiency. Energy efficiency in buildings will play a critical
role, but these are expected to occur as a matter
of course because in many cases the measures are already cost effective.
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