New Reports Catalogue Worsening Impacts of Climate Change
Two recent compendiums of climate change science compiled by leading climate scientists show the impacts of climate change are happening sooner and at a greater magnitude than previously thought.
The two reports are the latest attempts to update climate science since the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007. The first new report, released in late September by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), is titled "Climate Change Science Compendium 2009," and the second, released in late November by 26 climate researchers, is called "The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science." Both are based on published, peer-reviewed climate science.
Both reports reach the same conclusions – that Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate; that Arctic sea ice has melted far beyond climate model expectations; and that global sea-level rise may well exceed 1 meter by 2100, with an upper limit of 2 meters now considered to be the upper range for sea-level rise by 2100.
Both reports also note that carbon emissions from fossil fuels were 40% higher in 2008 than in 1990. The increasing emissions are causing the window in which to reduce emissions to narrow. According to the reports, if emissions are maintained at today’s levels for the next 20 years, the possibility of limiting global warming to less than 2°C will disappear, leading to disastrous consequences. The comprehensive UNEP report also warns of ocean acidification, melting mountain glaciers, and the possibility that "tipping points" in the climate could soon be reached. See the Copenhagen Diagnosis press release, which links to the full report, the UNEP press release, and the UNEP report, which was updated in late October.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) finds that atmospheric concentrations of GHG continue to increase. The WMO’s "Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2008," released in late November, finds that "radiative forcing," or greenhouse effect, caused by all long-lived greenhouse gases increased 1.3% from 2007-2008, and has increased 26% since 1990.
In 2008, the average concentration of carbon dioxide globally was 385.2 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2 ppm from 2007, while methane increased to 1,797 parts per billion (ppb), an increase of 7 ppb above 2007 levels. After staying stable from 1999 to 2006, methane concentrations showed significant increases in 2007 and 2008. Nitrous oxide and refrigerants are also on the rise. The report is troubling in light of the "Carbon Budget 2008," a report released in mid-November by the Global Carbon Project, which found that carbon emissions are now overwhelming natural "sinks" that absorb carbon, such as the ocean. See the WMO press release and report and the Carbon Budget 2008.
President Obama Sets Target for U.S. GHG Emissions Cuts
On November 25, the White House announced that President Obama is offering a U.S. target for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. The proposed target is based on the limit set by climate legislation that has passed the U.S. House of Representatives, but the U.S. Senate is currently considering a bill that cuts GHG emissions by 20%. The White House said the final target will fall in line with climate legislation. Pending legislation also includes targets of 30% below 2005 levels by 2025 and 42% below 2005 levels by 2030.
President Obama will attend the Copenhagen conference on December 9. A number of top White House officials and cabinet members will also attend, including Energy Secretary Steven Chu. For the first time, the U.S. delegation will establish a U.S. Center at the conference, which will feature keynote speeches by top U.S. officials from December 9-17, including a December 14 speech by Secretary Chu on U.S. leadership in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The U.S. Department of State has a "COP-15" Web site and a Facebook page. See the White House press release and the State Department’s press release, COP-15 Web site, and COP-15 Facebook Page.
The day after the White House announced GHG targets, China announced it will reduce the intensity of its carbon dioxide emissions by 40-45% by 2020 (CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product). China expects its GDP to at least double by 2020, which could potentially result in a doubling of carbon emissions, but the new target should hold the increase to 20% or less. The carbon intensity target will be a binding goal that China will incorporate into its medium- and long-term development plans.
China also announced plans to invest in the research, development, and commercialization of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, as well as other low-carbon energy technologies. The country plans to draw on non-fossil-fuel energy sources for 15% of its energy needs by 2020 and will encourage low-carbon lifestyles and consumption. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the U.N. climate change conference in Copenhagen. See the announcement on the Chinese Government’s official Web portal.
US & India to Cooperate on Clean Energy Technologies
President Obama and India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed a comprehensive MOU on November 24 for their nations to work together to speed development and deployment of clean energy technology. Noting that energy security, food security, and climate change are interlinked, the leaders entered into a Green Partnership to meet these global challenges. Both leaders affirmed that the outcome of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen must be comprehensive.
Under the MOU, the two nations will launch a Clean Energy and Climate Change Initiative, with the goal of improving technologies to make clean energy more affordable and efficient. The initiative will include cooperation in wind and solar energy, second-generation biofuels, and energy efficiency, as well as unconventional sources of natural gas and clean coal technologies, including carbon capture and storage.
The two nations will also mobilize public and private resources to invest in clean energy projects in India. Further, they began an Indo-U.S. Clean Energy Research and Deployment Initiative, supported by government and private-sector funds. The initiative will leverage expertise from both countries and covers such topics as energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, second-generation biofuels, battery technology, the Smart Grid, solar energy, wind energy, and micro-hydropower. It will also include a Joint Research Center operating in both countries to accelerate deployment of clean energy technologies.
The US and India also signed MOUs on solar and wind energy. Under the solar MOU, DOE’s National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) will partner with India’s Solar Energy Centre to create a comprehensive nationwide map of the solar potential in India. Also, more than two dozen U.S. and Indian cities will team up to jointly boost solar development. The wind MOU, between NREL and India’s Centre for Wind Energy Technology, will focus on developing a low-speed wind turbine. See the White House press release and the Green Partnership Fact Sheet (PDF 81 KB).
NY Seeks Proposals for Offshore Wind Power in the Great Lakes
The New York Power Authority (NYPA) released a request for proposals (RFP) on Tuesday for development of offshore wind power projects in the NY State waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The wind project would not only be the first in the Great Lakes, but the first wind development of any kind in a freshwater body in the US.
The Power Authority is soliciting proposals for a utility-scale wind project in the range of 120-500 MW, with a target date of 2015 for commercial operation. Proposals are due June 1, 2010, and the NYPA plans to select a winning project by December 2010.
Under the terms of the RFP, projects must interconnect with new or existing transmission facilities of appropriate regional electric utilities, which are all controlled by the NY Independent System Operator. NYPA will purchase the full output of the project under a long-term Power Purchase Agreement. NYPA has begun commissioning studies for the RFP, including conducting preliminary wind resource, site screening, and environmental studies to investigate potentially feasible locations for project sites as shown in the RFP. See the NYPA press release, the RFP, and the NYPA Web page for the Great Lakes Offshore Wind Project.
In another effort to harness offshore wind resources, the governors of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware announced on November 11 a tri-state partnership for deployment of offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Virginia Governor Kaine, Delaware Governor Markell, and Maryland Governor Malley signed a MOU creating a formal partnership that will build on the region’s offshore wind resources to generate renewable energy while creating a sustainable market that will bring new economic opportunities.
Through the MOU, the Mid-Atlantic states will focus on leveraging resources and pooling information to bring offshore wind to the region. The group will begin by identifying common transmission strategies for offshore wind deployment in the region, discussing ways to encourage sustainable market demand for this renewable resource, and working collaboratively in pursuing federal energy policies that will help to advance offshore wind in the area. See Governor Kaine’s press release.
NREL Report Relates State Policies to Renewable Energy Development
DOE’s National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) issued a report showing that clean energy development is spreading rapidly throughout the country, often following public policies designed to spur renewable energy growth. According to the report, "State of the States 2009: Renewable Energy Development and the Role of Policy," California led the nation in terms of total non-hydro renewable generation in 2007, while Maine generated the largest percentage of electricity from renewable resources other than hydropower, at 26.1%.
29 states and the District of Columbia have adopted renewable portfolio standards (RPS). All but a dozen states have implemented interconnection policies for connecting renewable energy systems to the grid, while all but eight allow customers to earn credit for power fed back into the grid through net metering.
The NREL report also examined the impact of renewable energy policies using statistical methods. The analysis found that states with net-metering policies in place in 2005 had more generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources in 2007 than states that did not. States that required utilities to tell customers about the energy sources used to produce their electricity and also required utilities to offer "green power", also produced more renewable energy. See the report (PDF 4.2 MB).
Affordable Green Housing Gets Boost from Billion-Dollar Funds
Two nonprofit organizations launched billion-dollar programs to boost affordable green housing.
Enterprise Community Partners, Inc., which focuses on community development and affordable housing, announced a $4 billion commitment to the next generation of its Green Communities initiative. Enterprise says its efforts will result directly in the creation, preservation, or retrofit of 75,000 green homes and community and commercial buildings over the next five years. The group will provide loans to owners of existing multifamily buildings in key markets for capital purchases that will reduce energy and water consumption or will lead to more healthy living environments. Enterprise relies on support from a number of banks and foundations, and it is currently drawing on $2.5 million in grants for fundraising.
Enterprise also issued a national call to action to make all affordable housing in the US meet green criteria by 2020. They released a study, "Incremental Cost, Measurable Savings: Enterprise," that demonstrates the return on investment of meeting its Green Communities Criteria. The estimated lifetime savings exceed the initial investment made to incorporate the Green Communities Criteria into affordable housing during construction. See the Enterprise press release (PDF 68 KB), the report, and the Web site for Enterprise Green Communities.
New York-based Community Preservation Corporation (CPC), a nonprofit affordable housing lender, announced a new public-private partnership to provide $1 billion in construction and mortgage loans for energy-efficient upgrades and property retrofits. The loans will go to owners of affordable multifamily rental units and coops in NY State.
CPC says it will identify needed energy efficiency improvements for each building through an energy audit. The goal is to increase fuel and electrical efficiency of existing apartment buildings by 20% or more by financing retrofits for up to 15,000 apartments over the next few years. CPC is drawing on funds from Freddie Mack, NY State and NYC public employee pension funds, private lenders, and other lending institutions. See the CPC press release and the CPC Web page for the Green Financing Initiative.
California Approves Energy Efficiency Standards for Televisions
The California Energy Commission (CEC) approved the nation’s first energy efficiency standards for televisions on November 18. When these standards take effect in 2011, televisions sold in California will be the most energy efficient in the nation.
After 10 years, the CEC estimates the regulations will save $8.1 billion in energy costs, while avoiding enough energy use to power 864,000 single-family homes. The Pacific Gas & Electric Company estimates that over the course of a decade, the standards will reduce carbon emissions by three million metric tons. In a typical California home, TVs and related accessories account for about 10% of electricity consumption.
The technology-neutral standards mandate that new televisions sold in California must consume 33% less electricity by 2011 and 49% less electricity by 2013. The standards affect TVs with a screen size of 58 inches or smaller. The CEC notes that over 1,000 TV models on the market today already meet 2011 standards and cost no more than less efficient sets. Stores will not be prohibited from selling their existing stock of older televisions after the standards go into effect. See the CEC press release and the television efficiency regulations.
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EREE Network News is a weekly publication of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).
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