Most Likely Results at Copenhagen

As delegates finish up the last day of climate negotiations in Barcelona, they say that although they don’t expect a binding legal agreement in Copenhagen, they do expect a "political" deal. 

What may happen in the end, is an overarching statement of long-term objectives and a series of decisions on technology transfer, incentives to stop deforestation, and building infrastructure in poor countries to adapt to global warming, Reuters reported.

Regardless of whether commitments on percentage cuts in greenhouse emissions are legally binding, written commitments will be difficult to "wiggle out of," said Yvo de Boer, the U.N. official who is facilitating the meeting.

Negotiators still believe they can achieve agreement on specific reduction targets, but that it could take another year for some nations, like the US, to sign legally binding agreements.

The US Climate Change bill, which would contain specific targets for the US to meet, won’t pass in time for Copenhagen. Should President Obama choose to use his power, he could commit to targets without passage of the bill, however.

De Boer told Reuters that he’s looking to the US to announce a clear emissions target for 2020. "A number from the president of the United States would have huge weight."

Developing countries are furious that advanced nations are dragging their feet on commitments and that those that look likely fall far short of scientific consensus. The failure to reach significant agreement after two years of negotiations is extremely disappointing.

Sweden’s delegate said, "We are going to change the fundamentals of industrial civilization, so it’s no wonder there is a lot of activity going on in a negotiation like this." 

"We look forward to Copenhagen with optimism, but we will not accept a weak, green-wash outcome," said Alf Wills, chief negotiator for South Africa.

One of the most important sources for greenhouse gas reductions still hasn’t made it into the treaty process – agriculture.

In 50 years, soils could capture about 450 billion tons of carbon dioxide – more than two thirds of the current excess in the atmosphere.

In addition to curbing climate change, a massive shift to organic agriculture would boost food production in developing nations.
It could also raise $30 billion annually if it were included in carbon finance schemes.

Low carbon agriculture needs to be rewarded in the global climate treaty, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.