Despite expectations for modest growth in 2009, wind manufacturers expressed collective optimism for an improved market in 2010.
Manufacturers with capacity expansion plans, such as Acciona, Gamesa, Suzlon, Siemens, and Vestas, will be well-positioned for the recovery, although full utilization will depend on their ability to demonstrate flexibility in pricing and delivery terms.
"The industry saw record installations in 2008 even though new production facilities had not yet come on line in the US and China, " said Keith Hays, Emerging Energy Research’s Research Director, referring to their annual Wind Turbine Market Share Update.
In 2008, global turbine demand offered room for established players, whose average installations grew by over 50%, and newer players, which saw installations jump by 100% and more.
New competitors such as Sinovel, Dongfang, and Clipper made modest inroads into the leaders’ market share, but the turbine market remained dominated by Vestas, GE, Gamesa, Enercon, Suzlon, and Siemens who, as a group, accounted for 70% of last years’ installations.
Buoyed by 2007’s bursting order books, turbine manufacturers installed almost 11 GW more turbines in 2008 than in the previous year – totaling nearly 30 GW of turbines activated during the year, almost double the volume in 2006, with the US and China accounting for 48% of that amount.
"The battle for market share is expected to intensify in 2009-2010 as the economic slowdown continues and as local suppliers in the United States and China ramp production," says Keith Hays.
With more than 15 turbine vendors scrambling to take business from the big six, players with diversified order books are best positioned to grow in 2009 as the slowdown will be felt most acutely in the US, a market that weighs heavily in the order books of the major vendors.
China, however, is less impacted by the recession; steady performance can be expected from China’s growing number of local turbine suppliers as well as global players – such as Vestas, Nordex, and Gamesa – with an existing foothold in that market.
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