New York City will face higher temperatures and more rapidly rising sea levels, as well as more frequent and intense extreme weather events over the course of the century, according to a report released yesterday by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC).
Using global climate models and local information, the NPCC projects that by the end of the century New York City’s mean annual temperatures projected to increase by 4 to 7.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Annual precipitation is also projected to increase by 5% to 10%, and sea levels to rise by 12 to 23 inches.
Recent evidence, however, including accelerated ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, suggests that sea levels could rise at a faster rate than projected by the existing models – potentially to 41 to 55 inches by the end of the century. While this "rapid ice-melt" scenario does not have the same level of confidence associated with it as those developed by the global climate models, the NPCC included it in their projections given the large impact it would have on the City should it occur.
The report also projects that extreme events–such as heat waves, short periods of intense rain, droughts, and coastal flooding–are likely to become more frequent and more intense. In contrast, cold day events, where the temperature drops below freezing, will decrease in frequency. By the end of the century, New York City could experience:
* Approximately 2.5 to 4 times more heat waves (as defined as three consecutive days over 90 degrees) a year than experienced on average from 1971-2000
* More frequent, intense rainstorms
* A current 1-in-100 year coastal flood about once every 15 to 35 years.
The NPCC was charged with developing climate change projections for New York City and tools to assist the City’s Climate Change Adaptation Task Force. The first of these tools, the Climate Risk Information Workbook, which contains detailed climate change projections for New York City primarily based on global climate model simulations, was released today.
The report will be used by the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, which consists of 38 City, State, and federal agencies, regional public authorities, and private companies that operate, maintain and regulate critical infrastructure in New York City.
The New York City Panel on Climate Change is modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The NPCC is chaired by Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig of the Columbia University Earth Institute/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Dr. William Solecki of CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities at Hunter College.
The report was released at the Department of Environmental Protection’s Rockaway Wastewater Treatment Plant, which is preparing for the effects of climate change by raising electrical equipment, such as pump motors, circuit breakers, and controls, to higher elevations.
"The climate change projections developed by our expert panel put numbers to what we already know–climate change is real and could have serious consequences for New York if we don’t take action," said Mayor Bloomberg. "The projections developed by the NPCC will be used by our Adaptation Task Force to create a plan to protect the City’s critical infrastructure and will inform other City efforts to adapt to climate change. Planning for climate change today is less expensive than rebuilding an entire network after a catastrophe. We cannot wait until after our infrastructure has been compromised to begin to plan for the effects of climate change now."
Download the report at the link below.
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