The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has reached an agreement with Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL) to provide highly detailed, localized weather forecasts to enable the utility to better integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid.
The forecasts will help operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal- and natural gas-fired plants when sufficient winds are predicted, allowing the utility to increase reliance on alternative energy.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will support the project by developing mathematical formulas to calculate the amount of energy that turbines generate when winds blow at various speeds.
NCAR will use a suite of tools, including computer models, to issue high-resolution wind forecasts for wind farm sites every three hours. If the prediction system is successful, wind forecasting companies may adopt the technology to help utilities in the United States and overseas transition away from fossil fuels.
"One of the major obstacles that has prevented more widespread use of wind energy is the difficulty in predicting when and how strongly the wind will blow at the wind farms," says William Mahoney, the NCAR program director overseeing the project. "These forecasts are a critical step in getting more energy from wind."
A number of states are mandating that utilities increase their use of renewable energy as a way to reduce dependence on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, which affect air quality and release greenhouse gases associated with climate change. But the shift to wind means relying on a resource that is notoriously difficult to predict and manage.
Because large amounts of electricity cannot be stored in a cost-effective manner, power generated by a wind turbine or any other source must be promptly consumed. If an electric utility powers down a coal- or natural gas-fired facility in anticipation of wind-driven energy, those plants may not be able to power up fast enough if the winds fail to blow. The only option in such a scenario is to buy energy on the spot market, which can be very costly. Conversely, if the winds blow more strongly or erratically than anticipated, the surge of energy can overload the system.
"Wind energy remains difficult to manage due to its variability–you can’t always count on it," says Eric Pierce, Xcel Energy’s managing director of energy trading. "Accurately forecasting our wind power generation will allow Xcel Energy to reliably bring on more wind energy and reduce costs at the same time. This is an important part of building a 21st century energy system."
Under the agreement, NCAR will develop a prototype advanced wind prediction system during the next 18 months and will begin to generate test forecasts for Xcel Energy wind farms in Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming after six months. NCAR will continue to improve the system over the following 12 months. Then the prototpe forecasting system will be transferred to Xcel Energy for operational use, while NCAR continues to work toward making the forecasts still more accurate.
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