Wind Industry Projections for 2009

Although the wind industry is buffeted by the financial crisis currently affecting industries across the board, it is also buoyed by a strong strategic position and the
prospect of strong policy support from Congress and the new President.

Here’s a list of projections for the wind industry in the coming year.

–Competition for ‘Largest’ Designation: At least one new project may soon surpass FPL Energy’s 736-megawatt (MW) Horse Hollow wind farm, which has been the world’s largest for three years running. One project under expansion, by E.ON Climate & Renewables (EC&R) North America, and currently scheduled to go online in mid-2009, would have a total capacity of 781.5 megawatts (MW) when it is completed. Gigawatt-size projects (in the thousands of megawatts) like the ones proposed by T. Boone Pickens and Shell Wind Energy are also in the pipeline but will take several years to be built.

–Second-largest source of new U.S. power generating capacity: Wind is now a mainstream option for new power generation, second only to natural gas plants in new capacity built from 2005 through 2007, and probably again in 2008, pending year-end figures. Measured by market share, wind provided 35% of all new generation added in the U.S. in 2007. And with 7,500 MW of new capacity expected when 2008 figures are released, wind is likely to contribute at least 35% of new capacity added this year.

–Greater federal policy stability: President-elect Obama has outlined a range of policies that would encourage investments in wind and renewables, and these policies are expected to be on the table for serious discussion and possible early action in 2009. The policies would signal a welcome shift for renewable energy technologies, whose deployment has been hampered by the absence of long-term policy stability. New policies include:

• adjusting the federal production tax credit (PTC) to make it more effective in the midst of the current economic downturn and extending it for a longer term (it expires at the end of 2009)

• establishing a national renewable electricity standard (RES) with a target of generating at least 25% of the nation’s electricity from renewables by 2025, and a near-term target of 10% by 2012 (a Washington Post poll in early December found that 84% of Americans support such a standard)

• legislation and initiatives to develop a high-voltage interstate transmission "highway" for renewable energy

• strong national climate change legislation.

–States will focus on RES, transmission for renewables: Expect one or more states to implement (Indiana) or strengthen (Wisconsin and New York) their Renewable Electricity Standards (RES), bringing the number of states with an RES from 28 to perhaps 30. Look also for some states, including some without an RES (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska) to develop a process to facilitate investment in transmission for electricity generated using renewables.

–"Baseload/peaking" is "out" and "smart mix" is "in": The electric industry faces dramatic transformations as it wrestles with the challenges of the 21st century. The old paradigm that assumed "baseload" power plants were necessary is being replaced by a new paradigm where both demand and supply are managed in tandem, and electricity is supplied by a smart, clean mix including a high level of renewable and flexible technologies.

–More community wind projects in 2009: The fast-growing wind power market is also opening up opportunities for community wind, which are projects owned by farmers, ranchers or other local investors or public entities. Look for more community wind proposals in 2009.

Larger incentive for small wind?: Homeowners, farmers, and small-business owners now benefit from a federal incentive enacted in late 2008 for the purchase of small wind systems. However, this credit is capped. Owners of small wind systems with 100 kilowatts (kW) of capacity and less can receive a credit for 30% of the total installed cost of the system, not to exceed $4,000. For turbines used for homes, the credit is additionally limited to the lesser of $4,000 or $1,000 per kW of capacity. Look for an effort by the American Wind Energy Association to remove this limitation, so that consumers can benefit from a credit of a full 30% of the total cost of a small wind turbine purchased for an individual home or business.

For more information, visit the American Wind Energy Association web site.