The U.S. could save more than 68 billion gallons, or about half the fuel currently used by today’s vehicles, if by 2035 lightweight hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles dominated the maketplace, according to a new Massachusetts Institute of Technology report.
The report concludes that over the next 25 years the fuel consumption of new vehicles could be reduced by 30-50% and total U.S. fuel use for vehicles could be cut to 2000 levels, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut by almost as much.
"We’ve got to get out of the habit of thinking that we only need to focus on improving the technology–that we can invent our way out of this situation," said John B. Heywood, a professor of mechanical engineering, who led the research. "We’ve got to do everything we can think of, including reducing the size of the task by real conservation."
Carefully crafted government policies will be needed to bring about this large-scale move away from business as usual, the researchers emphasize.
The new report, On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions, integrates five years’ work by MIT teams examining different approaches to cutting transportation fuel use and emissions. Projects analyzed specific propulsion technologies, vehicle performance and design, market penetration rates for the various technologies, consumer expectations, new fuels, and potential policy measures.
"The need to bring better technology into production and build up volume inevitably makes the time frames for technologies to make a difference long. Optimists want to move faster, but it’s not clear we can really do it much faster," Heywood said.
According to the authors of the report, slashing transportation fuel use and GHG emissions by 2035 will require immediate action on several challenging fronts.
For the near term (up to 15 years), we should increase our efforts to improve light-duty vehicle engines and transmissions, but all improvements must go towards reducing fuel efficiency rather than making cars bigger and faster. Also critical is reducing vehicle weight and size.
For the mid and long term (15-30 years, and more than 30 years), we should ramp up work on radically different technologies such as plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
We must also develop and market more environmentally benign fuels based on non-petroleum sources. For example, research on biofuels should continue. The US emphasis on corn-based ethanol is not obviously justifiable, but biofuels based on other feedstocks and conversion technologies should be pursued. In general, the use of biofuels will grow but not as fast as expected just a few years ago.
The final key is policy action. A coordinated set of regulatory and fiscal measures will be needed to push and pull improved technologies and greener alternative fuels into the market place in high volume. Measures should require auto manufacturers to make smaller, more-efficient cars, encourage consumers to choose those vehicles, and discourage everyone from driving so much.
Overall, the report shows that there are many opportunities for change. However, the challenges involved are enormous.
"Transitioning from our current situation onto a path with declining fuel consumption and emissions, even in the developed world, will take several decades–much longer than we had hoped or realized," said Heywood. "We’ve got to start now."
The full report plus its predecessor On the Road in 2020 (published in 2000) are available at the Fueling our Transportation Future website.
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