Leaders of the G8 nations released a statement from their summit meeting in Japan today that sets a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2050.
On the surface, the agreement seems to be a major step forward, as President Bush has stubbornly refused to commit to specific reduction targets and environmentalists were concerned that the words "at least" would be left out of the agreement, thereby setting a target well below the 80% called for by climate change scientists.
However, under examination, it becomes obvious that this "agreement" is the tiniest of steps forward from the G8 position a year ago in Germany when it agreed to "seriously consider" 50% reductions by 2050.
This latest communique with the world allows Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to claim success in pushing forward climate change negotiations, while leaving the Bush administration all the wiggle-room it needs to back away from the 2050 target.
Effectively the agreement says that the G8 nations believe the 2050 target of at least 50% should be the global goal pursued by all nations. It does not say they commit their nationsto the goal and hope that by demonstrating leadership other countries will follow.
The unwritten subtext is that if other countries, namely China and India, do not commit to the target, neither will the Bush administration, which leaves the world in the same place it was before the G8 summit began–waiting for a new U.S. president.
India and China say they will not commit to emissions reductions unless the U.S. does, and Bush says the U.S. will not commit to reductions unless China and India do. It seems clear from this standoff that both sides are willing to commit, but someone has to go first.
It should be the U.S. and the other G8 countries, who are responsible for roughy 62% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The other tiny step forward in today’s announcement was the agreement that there should be midterm goals–a statement of the obvious, but another point of major disagreement.
While the EU is pushing for reductions of 25-40% by 2020, President Bush announced last month the U.S. would be willing to stop increasing its emissions by 2025–a vast sea of difference.
The G8 members agreed that they would set their own midterm targets.
The summit continues through Wednesday, at which time the G8 leaders will be joined by leaders of other large emiting nations, including China, India and Australia.
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