Dramatic progress in renewable energy technology is needed if the United States desires to produce 25% of its electricity and motor vehicle fuel from renewable sources by 2025 without significantly increasing consumer costs, according to a study issued today.
The study, produced by the nonprofit research organization RAND Corporation, provides a "snapshot" of the nation’s potential energy expenditures if a requirement was imposed that 25% of electricity and motor vehicle fuels used in the United States by 2025 would come from renewable resources (a goal activists have described as "25 x ’25").
The study finds that biomass resources and wind power have the greatest potential to contribute toward reaching the 25 x ’25 goal.
The study replaces a report withdrawn by RAND in 2006 because of errors RAND identified in the computer model and numerical assumptions on which the findings were based. The new report finds that meeting the 25 x ’25 goals would be more challenging than outlined in the earlier version of the report. RAND is a nonprofit research organization.
Currently, renewable energy provides 9.5% of total U.S. electricity supply, mostly hydroelectric power, and 1.6% of motor vehicle fuel.
"Expanding the use of renewable fuels will lower the long-term price of crude oil and reduce carbon dioxide emissions that are contributing to global warming," said lead author Michael Toman, director of the RAND Environment, Energy and Economic Development program. "However, to reap these benefits will require a major investment in improving and increasing the use of renewable energy technology."
The study finds that a large, inexpensive and easily converted biomass supply is essential if it is to be used as a renewable resource and still have a limited impact on consumers’ wallets. Developing such a supply would require harvesting energy crops at a scale that greatly exceeds current production.
"Without increased biomass availability, expanded renewable energy use could impose economic burdens and result in environmental setbacks due to land conversion," Toman said.
While the 25 x ’25 goal would significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Toman said a broader package of policy options that includes, but does not rely solely upon, increased use of renewable energy could produce equal benefits with less cost.
Among the study’s other key findings:
- Renewable energy technology will have to improve at the very significant pace envisioned by some renewable energy supporters in order to enjoy low-cost impacts.
- Significant increases in the use of wind power are possible, but only with substantial technical advances to facilitate greater use of less-productive locations.
- More moderate renewable energy targets–such as 15 or 20%–reduce expenditure impacts more than proportionately, though carbon dioxide reductions also are less significant.
- The federal government’s policy approach to pricing of renewable motor fuels will significantly affect fuel demand and society’s total energy expenditures.
Loading...