The global carbon market grew to a whopping US$64 billion in 2007, more than doubling over 2006, according to a new report from the World Bank highlighting the state and trends of the global carbon market. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) also saw a doubling of both value and number of allowances transacted to the tune of $50 billion.
The report’s data shows that the global carbon market doubled or tripled in value for all segments, except for projects in developing countries which saw a leveling off of market volumes transacted under the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM)-from 537 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2006 to 551 MtCO2e in 2007.
The report’s analysis cautions that market momentum may be at a crossroads for many developing countries just as they are beginning to reap the benefits of carbon finance and are stepping forward to show that they are making efforts to mitigate climate change through advancing clean energy technology.
"Sixty-eight developing countries participate in the CDM,, among them Jamaica, Kenya, Mali and Madagascar, which offered climate-friendly projects for the market for the first time in 2007," said Karan Capoor, senior World Bank carbon markets expert and main author of report. "But, at a time that global cooperation to reduce the risk of climate change is more important than ever before, the prospects for developing countries benefiting from the carbon market are in question. It would be a shame for the world to lose this momentum now."
The overall data in the report masks some key vulnerabilities-especially for developing countries. All developing countries face a demand gap sometime in 2008 when buyers realize that there is not enough time to fulfill Kyoto commitments with new projects, and demand will have not yet kicked in from emerging markets in the U.S. and Australia that are expected to be players in a future market after 2012.
Added to that is the fact that the European Commission has proposed freezing new demand for projects from developing countries in commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after 2012. The success of the CDM is also weighed down by procedural delays as more than 2000 projects out of more than 3000 have not yet been processed through the CDM approval cycle.
"Projects for renewable energy and energy efficiency, as well as investments in poorer developing countries make up the bulk of the projects this year and it is these projects that are losing out as a result of procedural delays and bottlenecks in the CDM, putting their eventual implementation into question," said Philippe Ambrosi, also of the World Bank, and co-author of the report.
The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008 is based on data from the trading of EUAs under the EU ETS and from transactions completed under the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms-the CDM and Joint Implementation (JI)-that allow industrialized countries to purchase greenhouse gas emission reductions in developing countries and in countries with economies in transition and also includes data from voluntary markets.
"A doubling in the size of the carbon market is significant growth, but the market is nowhere near meeting its full potential," said Andrew Ertel, President & CEO of Evolution Markets Inc., one of the contributors to this year’s report. "Lack of clarity post-2012 and a leveling off of primary CDM volume is countering growth of commoditized markets such the EU ETS and secondary CDM trading. The market is truly at a crossroads as market participants fully appreciate the complexity and risks of carbon trading. Where we go from here is up to market players and their perception of the regulatory risk in all of these markets."
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