A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program points to a problem rarely discussed – climate change could negatively affect the renewable energy sector.
The report suggests renewable energy, which depends directly on natural resources such as water, wind and sunlight, are likely to be more sensitive to climate variability than fossil or nuclear energy sources.
“Even modest impacts in key resource areas could substantially impact the cost competitiveness of these technologies due to changes in electricity production and impede the planning and financing of new wind and solar projects due to increased variability of the resource.”
“Renewable energy production is highly susceptible to localized and regional changes in the resource base; as a result, the greater uncertainties on regional impacts under current climate change modelling pose a significant challenge in evaluating medium to long-term impacts on renewable energy production,” it notes.
“Of the two largest U.S. renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power generation, can be expected to be directly and significantly affected by climate change, while biomass power and fuel production impacts are less certain in the short term,” it notes. “The impact on hydroelectric production will vary by region, with potential for production decreases in key areas such as the Columbia River Basin and Northern California.”
“Although wind energy will not be impacted by changing water supplies like the other fuel sources, projected climate change impacts – such as changes in seasonal wind patterns or strength – would likely have significant positive or negative impacts because wind energy generation is a function of the cube of the wind speed,” the report states.
“Climate change could affect geothermal energy production and concentrating solar power in the same way that higher temperatures reduce the efficiency of fossil-fuel boiler electric turbines, but there is no recent research on other potential impacts in this sector due to climate change,” the report continues.
“The relationship between the climate forcing effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols is complex and an area of extensive research. This field would also benefit from further analysis on the nexus between anthropogenic aerosols, climate change, solar radiation, and impacts on solar energy production.”
The report cites one study that showed through climate modeling that solar resources could be reduced by as much as 20% seasonally from increased cloud coverage. Another cited report “predicts that a 2% decrease in global solar radiation will decrease solar cell output by 6% overall,” noted the report.
Although wave, tidal and ocean thermal energy are not currently part of the nation’s renewable mix, “each of these could be affected by climate change due to changes in average water temperature, temperature gradients, salinity, sea level, wind patterns affecting wave production, and intensity and frequency of extreme weather events,” according to the report.
“[The report] is notable because unlike some other sectors of interest regarding climate change – such as water, agriculture, and human health – the renewable energy sector has not been the focus of climate impact discussions over the past decade,” said Thomas Wilbanks, the coordinating lead author.
“Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States”:
Loading...