A new report details what’s achievable with renewable energy technologies, given the appropriate policy mix.
It demonstrates that renewable energy could provide over 635 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity by 2025 - roughly half of today’s total U.S. generating capacity, and potentially more than the nation’s need for new capacity. It could supplanting as much as 40% U.S. petroleum products by 2030. The “2007 Joint Outlook on Renewable Energy in America,” by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) says the following mix is possible:
Wind power: 248 GW
Solar energy: 164 GW
Water power: 23 GW
Geothermal energy: 100 GW
Biomass energy and fuels: 100 GW
Renewable fuels can supply 30-40% of U.S. petroleum products by 2030.
The report is not a forecast. It is a compilation of industry projections of what is achievable if the country wants it and is willing to embrace the public policies to make it happen.
It is technically feasible to increase wind capacity to supply 20% of the U.S.’s electricity by 2030. Active “community wind” projects, as well as small distributed wind applications, will supplement large utility-scale projects. Offshore wind is expected to begin as early as 2010, and to increase thereafter.
The outlook for solar energy in the U.S. envisions 110 GW of new solar power capacity by 2016, resulting from a 67% compound annual growth rate.
After a rapid growth through 2015, the solar market is foreseen to stabilize with 5 GW of photovoltaic (PV) and 1 GW of concentrating solar power (CSP) added annually from 2016-2025, resulting in total solar capacity additions of 164 GW in 2025.
The water power technologies expected to contribute to this outlook are conventional hydropower, hydrokinetic power, and ocean energy which includes wave, current, tidal, marine biomass, and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) power.
Conventional hydropower is already the leading source of renewable electric power capacity at over 75 percent of all renewable sites. Its quick, reliable load-following capacity and seasonable capacity can enhance the performance of other renewables by balancing variability in resources. In addition, the potential for power generation from ocean currents and tidal flow is tremendous. Plus, the new field of hydrokinetic power offers a wide range of distributed power generation options. Utilizing all the water power technologies, there is the potential to add 23 GW of capacity by 2025.
Geothermal energy is posed to expand rapidly. It could contribute 100 GW of new capacity by 2025, tapping both identified resources and new discoveries in hydrothermal sites, co-production from oil and gas wells, and deep resources and engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Furthermore, geothermal energy for direct uses and heat pumps could provide significant additional energy not included in this total if policies support their growth.
The outlook for 100 GW of new geothermal capacity by 2025 assumes development of 20 GW from the hydrothermal resource base, development of 70 GW from co-production and geo-pressured resources, and 10 GW of deep geothermal sources and EGS systems.
Biomass power projects could see a ten-fold increase from the current installed base of 10 GW. This increase would result in 100 GW of new biomass capacity by 2025.
Recent studies indicate that the U.S. agriculture and forestry industries have the potential to produce enough biomass resources to supplant 30-40 percent of current U.S. petroleum products while meeting food, feed, fiber, and export needs.
Today, 111 ethanol plants in 19 states have the capacity to produce 5.4 billion gallons of ethanol; by the first quarter of 2009, the industry’s annual production capacity is estimated to reach 11.6 billion gallons per year – a significant contribution to the approximately 135 billion gallons of gasoline the U.S. consumes annually..
U.S. production of biodiesel fuels is on track to increase from 25 million gallons in 2004 to 226 million gallons in 2006; the industry envisions that biodiesel blends will displace 5 percent of the diesel fuel market by 2015.
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