The European Photovoltaic Industry Association announced projections for growth of the worldwide solar electric (PV) industry to 2010.
Until 2010, EPIA expects the industry to grown by 37% a year given continuing favorable policy conditions. At that time, they estimate the global annual market for solar electricity to reach close to 5-6 GWp.
The first market estimations for 2006 show an annual global market growth between 10-15%. The sector is currently in a transitional phase, increasing production capacity to meet growing demand.
Germany remains the strongest market, but the European market is diversifying with Spain, Italy, France and Greece recently adopting programs to support growth. EPIA believes subsidies will be necessary for the next 5-10 years to develop new markets and guarantee stable development of the sector.
In terms of raw material availability, EPIA expects silicon production volumes to be over 40,000 tons per year in 2010 – sufficient for the production of 6 GWp of silicon-based solar and thus meeting expected growth in demand.
The group expects silicon-based solar PV to constitute 80% of the market by 2010 (down from 90% now), with thin-film solar becoming a significant alternative.
EPIA believes that solar electricity could compete with peak electricity prices within the next ten years, in a liberalized electricity market, especially in southern Europe.
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