Rand Study Says Renewable Energy Could Supply 25 Energy in U.S.

Renewable resources could produce 25 percent of the electricity and motor vehicle fuels used in the United States by 2025 at little or no additional cost if fossil fuel prices remain high enough and the cost of producing renewable energy continues falling in accord with historical trends, according to a RAND Corporation study.

Renewable sources currently provide about 6 percent of all the energy used in the United States.

The study was conducted by the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development program of RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

RAND found that meeting the 25 percent renewable energy target for electricity and motor fuels together would not increase total national energy spending if renewable energy production costs decline by at least 20 percent between now and 2025 (which is consistent with recent experience), unless long-term oil prices fall significantly below the range currently projected by the Energy Information Administration.

“When talking about the impact of increasing use of renewable energy sources in our energy future, it’s important to be clear about the assumptions being made about future energy prices and technological developments, not just for renewables but also for competing fossil energy sources,” said Michael Toman, director of RAND’s Environment, Energy, and Economic Development program.

Significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion also can be achieved by meeting the 25×25 goal, the study found, amounting to 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2025, or 15 percent of projected U.S. emissions. In addition, an estimated 2.5 million barrels of oil consumption would be displaced, according to the study.

The RAND study examined 1,500 cases of varying energy price and technology cost conditions for renewable and nonrenewable resources. The RAND team developed a model based on the National Energy Modeling System created by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

RAND researchers did not assess the impact of renewable energy used directly by industry in buildings currently using natural gas, in off-road vehicles used for construction and recreation, or in railroad and jet fuel.

RAND researchers assumed that implementation of increased renewable energy use would be carried out at a national level in the least costly manner, versus a more piecemeal approach. Among the important uncertainties considered is the cost to ramp up use of new renewable energy technologies.