If Democrats gain control of one or both houses of the U.S. Congress, they will likely face continued energy policy gridlock, industry lobbyists and congressional experts say.
To sweep Republicans out of power in Congress in the November 7 elections, Democrats must gain 15 seats in the House of Representatives and six Senate seats. Polls show Democrats are likely to take the House, but the Senate is still a reach.
If Democrats prevail, the impact on weighty energy issues like drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and boosting vehicle fuel standards will likely be “nada, nothing,’ said Jerry Taylor, an energy expert at the CATO Institute.
“Any legislative majority will be razor-thin, and that means that the fundamental dynamic in the chambers doesn’t change much,’ Taylor said.
Energy lobbyists also see continued gridlock in the new Congress — no matter who wins a majority — as both parties gear up for the high stakes 2008 presidential and congressional elections.
“It is going to be very hard to get any kind of serious business done in the next two years,’ one oil industry lobbyist said on condition of anonymity
The issues that could see action include boosting U.S. ethanol use, limited offshore drilling, and a possible push by Democrats to put first-ever caps on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to Kevin Book, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey and Co. Inc.
“There are only a few areas for wiggle room no matter what happens,’ said Book.
Nonetheless, Democrats say they will test some hefty energy initiatives if they take the majority gavel.
U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the House’s top Democrat who stands to be House speaker if her party takes control, has vowed to try to roll back billions of dollars in tax breaks and financial incentives given to big oil companies.
Pelosi also backs higher fuel efficiency requirements for cars and trucks.
IT’S GEOGRAPHY, STUPID
But Democratic U.S. Rep. John Dingell, who would head the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee and whose home district includes Detroit automakers, is unlikely to support tougher vehicle fuel standards, industry lobbyists said.
Pelosi also supports a government mandate for the United States to use more motor fuel made from corn, soybeans and other renewable sources.
Rep. Steny Hoyer, the No. 2 House Democrat, has proposed a major energy initiative that would cut U.S. foreign oil dependence by boosting use of home-grown fuels like ethanol.
Expanding renewable fuels would be popular with lawmakers from farm states like Iowa, and legislation in the next Congress to reauthorize government farm subsidies could be the forum to do that, lobbyists said.
According to analysts, Dingell’s fuel standards stance shows that energy policy lines usually follow geographic rather than political persuasion.
“What goes on with energy is more geographic and less red and blue,’ said Christine Tezak, an analyst at the Stanford Group Company, referring to the colors that pollsters use to denote Republican- and Democratic-leaning states.
Meanwhile supporters of opening Alaska’s wildlife refuge to oil drilling aren’t betting on a victory in a Democratic-controlled House, where the proposal is likely to draw much opposition.
Lawmakers returning right after the November elections are expected to look at offshore drilling legislation, trying to work out different bills passed by the House and Senate.
According to industry lobbyists and congressional staff, those efforts are likely to fall flat in the abbreviated “lame duck’ session, but could see new life next year as big natural gas users — from farmers to manufacturers — want more gas supplies to lower their energy costs.
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