As 2005, the 20th Anniversary of the Organic Trade Association (OTA) drew to a close, it conducted a survey of industry research organizations and long-time member companies to envision what the industry might look like in 20 years.
Here’s a brief recap of their expectations, as voiced in the survey:
* The organic industry can be expected to grow and thrive at a sturdy rate over the next 20 years, but at a slower pace than the current 20% average annual growth in sales.
* the average household in 2025 will contain organic products on a regular basis. These will include food items as well as organic clothing, cleaning products and personal care items.
* organic products in 2025 will be sold anywhere and everywhere. Increased sales in restaurants are one of the anticipated trends.
* Younger shoppers will continue to be interested in organic foods, particularly as Generation Xers pass down their belief systems. Ethnic shoppers, including Asian Americans and Hispanic Americans, will be more likely to buy organic products in proportion to their representation in the general population.
* government support of organic agriculture will be crucial to maintain the industry’s growth potential. The U.S. government will need to support farmers in transition to organic production, and to enforce standards to minimize consumer confusion.
Respondents predict the average annual growth rate by 2025 will be closer to 5-10%. However, annual sales increases in the $2 billion range were seen as feasible. If this occurs, U.S. organic food sales could reach $50 billion by 2025, representing just under 6% of total U.S. food sales.
Asked what percentage of U.S. and world farmland would likely be certified organic by 2025, respondents gave answers ranging from 8-15%, for a projected average of 12.6% of acres certified organic, versus the less than 1% that is certified today.
Among the challenges cited were consumer confusion about definitions around the organic labels, unbalanced governmental support and promotion of conventional farming methods at the expense of organic agriculture, and the acceptance of value of organic packaged products versus perishables in the marketplace.
What Some Long-Time OTA Members Say
Mel Coleman, Jr., Coleman Natural Meats:
The organic industry will enjoy the benefits of new research, education, and market development that will result in healthier small- family farm and ranch operations. Land grant universities will embrace and develop curriculum for organic agricultural studies and research. “Corporate” farms will adopt core values that support two “bottom lines” – financial responsibility to stakeholders and social responsibility as defined by stewardship of land, water, and other natural resources involved in ecologically focused food and fiber production. In 20 years, my hope would be that at least 15% of America’s ranch and farmland be successful and sustainable.
George Kalogridis, George’s Organics:
I’m very optimistic about the future of organics. It’s what people want and there is an ever-expanding base of farmers and companies ready to supply organic products. Organic production has become mainstream; in the next 20 years the focus will be a matter of total market share for food, fiber and other consumer products. That’s why so many mainstream consumer companies are entering the organic marketplace. They would rather cannibalize their current product lines with their own organic products than lose their customers to another company.
But I am concerned about the small farmers, who are the true pioneers of organics. They need OTA’s support to learn how to thrive in this new marketplace. OTA has to look back as well as forward; if we focus too much on larger companies then we will lose our way. It’s a delicate balance, but then that’s what organic is all about.
Neil Blomquist, Spectrum Organic Products
The industry will continue to grow, but will go through inevitable crises of credibility. I predict we’ll see some scandal by creating an environment of improved enforcement; categories like cosmetics and supplements will finally get NOP standards; prices for organic products will slowly get closer to conventional products in some areas as economies of scale kick in; science-based evidence showing organic products have superior qualities (although not across the board with all products) will eventually become recognized and will help drive growth; the farmer base will grow for organic, although corporate farms will continue to impact smaller, family-owned farms; international trade in organic products will become more streamlined as standards evolve among the world community; developing countries will have a big impact on raw material supply and pricing, as well as create new consumer markets for export.
Bu Nygrens, Veritable Vegetable
We would like to see the organic industry focus on some of the core values that were originally embraced, including equitable access to nutritious and healthy food for everyone. We need strengthening of alternative systems of distribution to encourage independent and mid-sized farms and businesses. We must evolve the standards for organic production and distribution to include social justice and humane treatment of animals. We want a worldwide moratorium on GMO food crops and the patenting of genes; we want universal access to crop seeds and seed heritages.
We want people worldwide, regardless of income and location, to have access to certified organic, locally grown, fresh and appropriately priced foods and goods. We want the industry to focus on the education of children in how to grow, prepare and enjoy fresh foods, and to cultivate in them an appreciation of farmers and farm work. In 20 year’s time, all communities can better understand their food choices, including the value of preserving cultural food heritages. We have seen some success in some original goals as an organic movement, as a community, in our years of expansion and growth. We still have a lot of work to do.
Bill Wolf, Wolf & Associates
Organic will be approaching 20% of all acreage and food sales worldwide and will have major impact on textiles, personal care, fertilizer, and other household goods, and on the way we think about other products, from cradle to grave.
Organic is the first successful model to convert an underlying philosophy to production methods and rules that can be certified. This is part of a larger move to index products and practices, such as “fair trade,”local,” “farmer direct,” “sustainable,” and “healthy,” which buyers associate with the organic purchase and category. OTA has the opportunity to act as a leader to network and guide to help assure that some of these other claims are successful as additional claims under the organic banner.
David Rosenberg, Wooden Shoe Gardens
I think circumstances dictate that our entire economy has to have a more ecological perspective. And I see that question is not being seriously addressed right now. It is going to happen. The changes are going to happen because they have to happen; the question is whether we are going to be proactive, or wether we follow standard business practice to make money out of a market as long as we can, and make changes only when crises arise. My hope is that we will be proactive. My other hope is that the organic industry will be able to expand opportunities for family farms.
++++
FROM The Organic Report, a newsletter of the Organic Trade Associat
ion, and a SustainableBusiness.com Content Partner
Loading...