Even with the growth currently occurring in many renewable energy sectors, DOE predicts only an 8 percent share of world energy use through 2020, according to its International Energy Outlook for 1998.
As long as oil prices are low, it will be difficult to make much more progress, although the Kyoto protocol has increased interest. DOE expects renewable consumption to increase by 67 percent (from 1995), or 8 percent of the total market. The major increase will be in developing nations, where major hydro projects are in the works.
The report notes positive developments such as Enron’s purchase of Zond and Tacke, BP’s plans to exceed solar sales of $1 billion a year within a decade, and Royal Dutch Shell’s plan to invest $500 million in renewables over the next
five years.
North America: renewable energy use will increase by 1.3% annually, to 10% of total energy use. In the U.S., municipal solid waste, wind and biomass will lead growth; wind capacity will double. In Canada, there will be a 30% increase in hydro between 2010-2020. Despite a range of Canadian initiatives, DOE expects only a small part of total energy needs will be met from renewables.
Western Europe: renewables are expected to climb by 70%, with wind capacity doubling by 2001.
Asia: the financial crisis is preventing growth for many renewable projects. DOE predicts industrialized Asia will see renewables increase by 0.7 quadrillion Btu from the current 1.4 quadrillion while, in developing regions of Asia, consumption of renewables will grow from 4.0 quadrillion Btu (1995) to 10.9
quadrillion (2020).
Eastern Europe: renewables will grow by 2.1% annually.
Renewables will remain a small part of energy used in the Mid East and Africa, and in Central and South America they will grow by 1.1% annually. Although renewables account for 77% of energy used for electricity generation now, this share will drop to 52% by 2020 due to greater use of gas.
[sorry this link is no longer available]
Source: Trends in Renewable Energies: info@renewables.ca
http://www.renewables.ca
Loading...